Joseph Benavidez vs Yasuhiro Urushitani, UFC on FX 2:

Demetrious Johnson vs Ian McCall, UFC on FX 2:

Constantinos Philippou vs Court McGee, UFC on FX 2:

James Te-Huna vs Aaron Rosa, UFC on FX 2:

Anthony Perosh vs Nick Penner, UFC on FX 2:

Steven Siler vs Cole Miller, UFC on FX 2:

Andrew Craig vs Kyle Noke, UFC on FX 2:

TJ Waldburger vs Jake Hecht, UFC on FX 2:

Daniel Pineda vs Mackens Semerzier, UFC on FX 2:

Shawn Jordan vs Oli Thompson, UFC on FX 2:

Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis. After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making. Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Betting Strategy:

Thiago Alves

Pick to win: Thiago Alves by KO/TKO

The numbers (and the odds) say this fight is super close.

Thiago Alves has the slight advantage in striking. Both fighters have landed a similar number of strikes and been about equally efficient, but Alves takes the edge based on having heavier hands and showing a better chin (example: Alves has delivered 5.0 knockdowns + knockouts per hour vs 2.6 for Kampmann).

Neither fighter’s grappling has impressed but Kampmann has definitely been “less bad”.

Other factors: Alves’ stats are based on facing a tougher level of competition (advantage Alves). Kampmann will have a 2″ reach advantage, but that is insignificant.

Putting it all together, the math gives Alves a slight edge for the win (53%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: possibly Thiago Alves, but not yet

The current moneyline on Alves is -127 (=56% chance of winning, $100 pays $79).

Alves’ chance of winning this bout are already baked in to the odds. I’ll continue to watch the line and bet on Alves if he gets down to about -110, otherwise I’ll be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis. After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making. Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Betting Strategy:

Demetrious Johnson

Pick to win: Demetrious Johnson by Decision

I’m not calculating my usual “probability of win” for this fight because this one is unique.

“Mighty Mouse” Johnson has been fighting as a bantamweight in the UFC/WEC and has 6 fights in the Fight Metric database. I think his numbers accurately reflect who he is as a fighter.

“Uncle Creepy” McCall on the other hand fought 3 times in the WEC as a bantamweight but then went on to fight at smaller promotions as a flyweight to become what many considered the top flyweight in the world.

We don’t have stats for those smaller promotions, so long story short, McCall’s stats might not completely reflect how good he is today.

The numbers we do have still give the nod for the win to Johnson, especially given the tougher level of competition he’s faced, I’m just not sure by how much.

. . . . .

Ian McCall

The current moneyline on McCall is +280 (= 26% chance of winning, $100 pays $280).

That line feels too long. Even though I think Johnson is more likely to win this fight, I might play McCall here as a long shot. Need to watch more film on Uncle Creepy this week since the stats are wonky. Leaving this one a question mark for now.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

Ronda Rousey

Note: Ronda Rousey does not have the 3 fights in the Fight Metric database that we require for a proper breakdown, so her stats should be taken with an extra dose of skepticism.

Click for all upcoming Strikeforce breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

Betting Strategy:

Josh Thomson

Pick to win: Josh Thomson by Decision

Statistically, neither fighter has a strong edge in striking. Thomson has been more efficient (ex. landing 42% of strikes vs 33% for Noons). Noons has had a higher work rate (ex. landing 261 strikes per hour vs 156 for Thomson).

Neither fighter’s grappling has impressed, but Thomson has definitely been “less bad”.

Other factor(s): Thomson will have a 1″ reach advantage, but that’s insignificant.

Putting it all together, the math gives Thomson the edge for the win (58%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: possibly Josh Thomson

The current moneyline on Thomson is -150 (= 60% chance of winning, $100 pays $67).

Based on the numbers, I think the current line is spot on. I’ll continue to watch the odds and wager on Thomson at -155 or better.

Click for all upcoming Strikeforce breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis. After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making. Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Betting Strategy:

Court McGee

Pick to win: Court McGee by Submission

The numbers (and the odds) say this is a close match up.

Constantinos Philippou has the statistical edge in striking, mostly based on his heavy-hands. Philippou has delivered a HUGE 9.0 knockdowns + knockouts per hour compared to zero for McGee.

McGee has the strong statistical edge in grappling. His 15.4 takedowns, 17.1 passes, and 3.4 submissions per hour are all in the top 10% of all fighters we track.

Other factors: Philippou has faced a tougher average level of competition (advantage Philippou). McGee will have a 3″ reach advantage, which is a hair significant.

Putting it all together, the math gives a super slight edge to McGee for the win (54%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: possibly Court McGee

The current moneyline on McGee is -124 (= 55% chance of winning, $100 pays $81).

Based on the numbers, I think the current line is spot on. I’ll continue to watch the odds and wager on McGee at -140 or better.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis. After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making. Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Betting Strategy:

James Te-Huna

Pick to win: James Te-Huna by KO/TKO

Statistically, Te-Huna has the advantage in striking. Rosa has had a higher work rate, landing 258 strikes per hour versus 106 for Te-Huna, but Te-Huna has done a much better job limiting strikes from opponents and has been much heavier-handed. Te-Huna has delivered a huge 9.6 knockdowns + knockouts per hour, versus zero for Rosa.

By default, Te-Huna also has the advantage in grappling. Rosa has shown (literally) no grappling offense.

Other factor(s): Rosa will have a 2″ reach advantage, but that is insignificant.

Putting it all together, the math gives Te-Huna the strong edge for the fight (71%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: possibly James Te-Huna

The current moneyline on Te-Huna is -300 (= 75% chance of winning, $100 pays $33).

Based on the numbers, I think the line is spot on. I’ll continue to watch the odds and wager on Te-Huna at -300 or better.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

Betting Strategy:

Paul Daley

Pick to win: Paul Daley by KO/TKO

Statistically, Daley has the advantage in striking. Both fighters have landed a similar number of strikes, and been about equally efficient and heavy-handed. Daley has delivered 13.4 knockdowns + knockouts per hour and has some of the heaviest hands of any fighter we track. Misaki is close behind with 10.5 KD + KOs per hour.

But Daley has the advantage because Misaki’s chin is questionable – he’s been knocked down or out 14.0 times per hour, which puts him near the bottom of all fighters we track.

Also note that Daley’s stats are based on facing a much tougher level of competition (advantage Daley).

Putting it all together, the math gives the strong edge to Daley for the win (64%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: likely neither fighter

The current moneyline on Daley is -280 (= 74% chance of winning, $100 pays $36).

Daley’s chances of winning this bout are already baked in to the odds. I’ll wager on Daley if he gets down to about -150 (which I don’t expect him to), otherwise I’ll be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

Click for all upcoming Strikeforce breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

A quick recap of our picks for UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson.

We broke down 7 fights (see them all) and went 2 for 4 on picks to win. Meh.

On the upside, we went 3 for 4 on picks to bet (right on Bader, Shields, Cariaso, wrong on Lauzon). We missed a wicked 30:1 parlay, but still made $89 on every $100 wagered on straight bets. I’ll take it.

Picks for this weekend’s UFC and Strikeforce events will be posted soon. Fights we’ll definitely be breaking down:

• Thiago Alves vs Martin Kampmann (UFC)
• Demetrious Johnson vs Ian McCall (UFC)
• Aaron Rosa vs James Te-Huna (UFC)
• Court McGee vs Constantinos Philippou (UFC)
• Ronda Rousey vs Miesha Tate (SF)
• Paul Daley vs Kazuo Misaki (SF)
• KJ Noons vs Josh Thomson (SF)

We get a lot of requests for extra breakdowns. I usually only break down fights when both fighters have at least 3 fights in the Fight Metric database. I’m okay with adding a few more if there’s enough reader demand, so leave your requests in the comment section!

Mike the Geek

Ryan Bader vs Quinton Jackson, UFC 144:

Mark Hunt vs Cheick Kongo, UFC 144:

Jake Shields vs Yoshihiro Akiyama, UFC 144:

Tim Boetsch vs Yushin Okami, UFC 144:

Hatsu Hioki vs Bart Palaszewski, UFC 144:

Anthony Pettis vs Joe Lauzon, UFC 144: